Tories set to gain ground

The Conservatives are poised to make significant gains in tomorrow's borough elections - fuelled by concerns over crime, which has seen one in four Londoners fall victim in the past year alone.

That is the verdict of an Evening Standard opinion poll out today. The survey of more than 1,000 voters by pollsters YouGov asked whether they or a member of their immediate family had been a crime victim during the past year. In answer, 13 per cent said they had suffered personally, 20 per cent said a member of their family had been a target and a further 12 per cent answered yes to both questions.

The poll offers Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith the first evidence his party is on course to do well tomorrow. Asked how they would vote on Thursday, 36 per cent said Tory, 34 per cent Labour and 23 per cent Liberal Democrat. Compared with the borough elections four years ago, that marks a six per cent drop for Labour and a fourpoint gain for the Tories.

The crime issue has featured heavily in campaigning by all major parties. The Government can point to a drop in overall crime, but that has been overshadowed by a big rise in street crime. Fighting street crime is the top issue London-wide, with 88 per cent calling it a high priority. Improving state schools is second, highlighted by 71 per cent. The survey shows a five per cent swing, suggesting Labour risks losing control of Croydon, Barnet, Harrow, Enfield and Waltham Forest.

The Tories now run just five of the 32 London boroughs. A turnaround on that scale would be Labour's worst setback since Tony Blair became leader. Some 23 million can vote tomorrow in Mr Blair's first big test since the general election. Almost 6,000 council seats are at stake nationwide. The outcome will also depend on turnout. The Standard poll suggests boredom could send it plunging below the previous record of 28 per cent.

Tomorrow will see the first vote for directly elected mayors in contests such as Watford, Newham and Lewisham. But the survey suggests only 23 per cent are in favour of extending the system. Opinion over Ken Livingstone's performance is divided with 36 per cent saying they are very or fairly satisfied and 32 per cent dissatisfied.

? YouGov polled 1,058 London electors online between 26 and 30 April. The raw data was weighted to represent all London electors.